NPR - How Good Were Climate Models 30 Years Ago?
How Good Were Climate Models 30 Years Ago? July 17, 2012 by ADAM FRANK http://www.npr.org/blogs/13.7/ Geet Jan van Oldenborg Models vs Reality: Gray lines are predictions from 1981 models of global temperature increase. Red line is real world data. Pretty good it appears. In a piece back in April at RealClimate , guest bloggers Geert Jan van Oldenborgh and Rein Haarsma of the Dutch Meterological Institute ( KNMI ) look at back at a 1981 paper by the now famous James Hansen and others. At the time, of course, neither Hansen or global warming were household names. Still the paper got noticed. As the Oldenborgh and Haarsma explain: "They got 10 pages in Science, which is a lot, but in it they cover radiation balance, 1D and 3D modelling, climate sensitivity, the main feedbacks (water vapour, lapse rate, clouds, ice- and vegetation albedo); solar and volcanic forcing; the uncertainties of aerosol forcings; and ocean heat uptake." The Hansen et...